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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129098

Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119292

Institutional Responses to Aging Populations and Economic Growth : A Panel Data Approach

Emerson, Patrick M. - 2019

Will an aging population lower economic growth? Economists are generally concerned that the increase in life expectancy could lower economic growth, however, theory does not make a prediction. As life expectancy increases, so should household savings, which results in more physical capital per...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863794

Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations

Dufourt, Frédéric - 2009

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157753

Distributional Effects of Competition : A Simulation Approach

Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos; Araar, Abdelkrim; … - 2021

Understanding the economic and social effects of the recent global trends of rising market concentration and market power has become a policy priority. To fill this knowledge gap, this paper introduces a simple simulation method, the Welfare and Competition tool (WELCOM), to estimate with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250767

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos - 2012

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117001

Growing Up in a Recession : Beliefs and the Macroeconomy

Giuliano, Paola - 2009

Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good … times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with … identify the effect of recessions on beliefs, we show that individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157021

School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy

Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco - 2021

In emerging market economies, young people feel like little boats in the ocean, due to the low and uncertain macroeconomic context. In the present study, we examine the school-to-work transition in Turkey over the period 2014-2017 by using a monthly dataset. As most emerging market economies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314866

Economic Conditions and Child Abuse

Lindo, Jason M. - 2013

Although a huge literature spanning several disciplines documents an association between poverty and child abuse, researchers have not found persuasive evidence that economic downturns increase abuse, despite their impacts on family income. In this paper, we address this seeming contradiction....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082753

Credit Constraints and ProductiveEntrepreneurship in Africa

Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina; Brixiova, Zuzana; Ndikumana, Leonce - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit <Bonn> - 2011

Limited access of entrepreneurs to credit constrains the creation and growth of private firms.In Africa, access to credit is particularly limited for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) dueto unclear property rights and the lack of assets that can be used as collateral. This paperpresents a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009486997

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