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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik C. - 2012
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480
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Exponential Growth Bias in the Prediction of Covid-19 Spread and Economic Expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik - 2020
positive cases in the future. The bias is positively correlated with optimistic expectations about the future macroeconomic … range of the future number of cases, based on a statistical model. Our results show that a) Step helps mitigate EGB relative … interventions decrease risky investment and help moderate future economic expectations through the reduction in EGB. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853
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Sudden Stop : When Did Firms Anticipate the Potential Consequences of Covid-19?
Buchheim, Lukas - 2020
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828600
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2021
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317671
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The Spread of Anti-Trafficking Policies : Evidence from a New Index
Cho, Seo-Young - 2011
We analyze the spread of policies dealing with international trafficking in human beings. Arguing that countries are unlikely to make independent choices, we identify pressure, externalities and learning or emulation as plausible diffusion mechanisms for spatial dependence in anti-trafficking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128229
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Business Conditions and Default Risks Across Countries
Pflüger, Michael - 2011
The risk of default that business firms face is very significant and differs widely across countries. This paper explores the links between countries' business conditions and international trade embedment and the default risk at the country level from a theoretical point of view. Our main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128748
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Emigration and Democracy
Docquier, Frédéric - 2011
Migration is an important and yet neglected determinant of institutions. The paper documents the channels through which emigration affects home country institutions and considers dynamic-panel regressions for a large sample of developing countries. We find that emigration and human capital both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129925
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Which Institutions Encourage Entrepreneurs to Create Larger Firms?
Estrin, Saul - 2011
We develop entrepreneurship and institutional theory to explain variation in different types of entrepreneurship across individuals and institutional contexts. Our framework generates hypotheses about the negative impact of higher levels of corruption, weaker property rights and especially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129940
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Globalization and Strategic Research Investments
Bohnstedt, Anna - 2011
We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms, where countries can invest into basic research to improve their technological potential. These research investments tighten firm selection and raise the average productivity of firms in the market, thereby...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131927
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Emotional Prosperity and the Stiglitz Commission
Oswald, Andrew J. - 2011
prosperity may be declining through time. For labour-market specialists, a key question for future research is how much this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131980