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Sudden Stop : When Did Firms Anticipate the Potential Consequences of Covid-19?
Buchheim, Lukas - 2020
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828600
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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, … - 2021
Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236401
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Productivity Premia for German Manufacturing Firms Exporting to the Euro-Area and Beyond : First Evidence from Robust Fixed Effects Estimations
Verardi, Vincenzo - 2010
estimates of the productivity premium of German firms exporting to the Euro-zone and beyond, controlling for unobserved time … invariant firm specific effects, and tests for self-selection of more productive firms into exporting beyond the Euro-zone. (3 … Euro-zone only is no longer much smaller that the premium of firms that export beyond the Euro-zone, too, and the premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141754
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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik C. - 2012
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480
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Exponential Growth Bias in the Prediction of Covid-19 Spread and Economic Expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik - 2020
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2021
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317671
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Is Leisure a Normal Good? Evidence from the European Parliament
Mocan, Naci H. - 2011
Prior to July 2009, salaries of the members of the European Parliament were paid by their home country and there were substantial salary differences between parliamentarians representing different EU countries. Starting in July 2009, the salary of each member of the Parliament is pegged to 38.5%...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120815
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Fiscal Union in Europe? Redistributive and Stabilising Effects of an EU Tax-Benefit System
Bargain, Olivier - 2012
representative household microdata from 11 Eurozone countries to simulate these policy reforms and to study their effects on the … that not all forms of fiscal integration will improve macroeconomic stability in the Eurozone …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105006
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Asymmetric Labor Market Institutions in the Emu and the Volatility of Inflation and Unemployment Differentials
Abbritti, Mirko - 2012
How does the asymmetry of labor market institutions affect the adjustment of a currency union to shocks? To answer this question, this paper sets up a dynamic currency union model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices, hiring frictions and real wage rigidities. In our analysis, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107467
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Capital Prices and Eurozone Competitiveness Differentials
Askenazy, Philippe - 2013
Competitiveness differentials are blamed for the instability of the Eurozone. Most of the analyses focus on labour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086230