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We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840446
I document that emerging markets have cast off their "original sin" – their external liabilities are no longer dominated by foreign-currency debt and have instead shifted sharply towards direct investment and portfolio equity. Their external assets are increasingly concentrated in foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119287
The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160313
This paper uses a new field survey of low-wage areas of urban India to show that employment and earnings were decimated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315261
This paper reviews evidence from 44 middle income countries on how the recent financial crisis affected jobs and workers' income. In addition to providing a rare assessment of the magnitude of the impact across several middle-income countries, the paper describes how labor markets adjusted and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120422
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … to Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia (excluding China and India) GDP has not undergone any significant change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121741
There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: growth in GDP especially, but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15-24 age group appears to be one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155560
It is commonly argued that crises open up a window of opportunity to implement policies that otherwise would not have the necessary political backing. The argument goes that the political cost of deep reforms declines as crises unravel structural problems that need to be urgently rectified and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842057
Financial crisis can trigger policy reversals, i.e. they can lead to a process of re- regulation of financial markets. Using a recent comprehensive dataset on financial liberalization across 94 countries for the period between 1973 and 2015, we formally test the validity of this prediction for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868012
This paper investigates the economic and social determinants affecting the well-being of temporary migrants before, during and after the financial crisis. Exploiting unique panel data which cover migration spells from Tajikistan between 2001 and 2011, we find that migrants earn less but stay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929090