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Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate T Distribution
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021
than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316934
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Identifying Regional Labor Demand Shocks Using Sign Restrictions
Juessen, Falko - 2012
We propose using sign restrictions to identify regional labor demand shocks in a panel VAR of US federal states. Observed migration responds significantly, but less persistently than the residual-based migration measure constructed by Blanchard and Katz (1992)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099800
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Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics
2020
uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a significant impact on the U.S. unemployment rate. We then develop a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829214
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Testing the Correlated Random Coefficient Model
Heckman, James J. - 2009
The recent literature on instrumental variables (IV) features models in which agents sort into treatment status on the basis of gains from treatment as well as on baseline-pretreatment levels. Components of the gains known to the agents and acted on by them may not be known by the observing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154992
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Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate
Pham, Binh Thai - 2019
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
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Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
Carlo experiments, where we also study the estimation of the aggregate effects of micro and macro shocks. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129942
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Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change
Balleer, Almut - 2009
Over the past two decades, technological progress has been biased towards making skilled labor more productive. What does skill-biased technological change imply for business cycles? To answer this question, we construct a quarterly series for the skill premium from the CPS and use it to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158513
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Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks
Sanchez Garcia, Manuel - 2017
We study workers' idiosyncratic earnings risk over the life-cycle using a German administrative data set. Positive and negative earnings shocks both contain a highly persistent component. The variance and average size of positive persistent shocks is decreasing over the life-cycle. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948657
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Are Entrepreneurs Aware of Covered Interest Parity and Dollar Shortage?
Nariman, Farhad; Heshmati, Almas - 2022
-oriented businesses. The VIX index (Chicago Board Options Exchange market volatility index) was once employed as a barometer of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406442
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Evolving Wage Cyclicality in Latin America
Gambetti, Luca - 2017
Examines the evolution of the cyclicality of real wages and employment in four Latin American economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, during the period 1980-2010. Wages are highly pro-cyclical during the 1980s and early 1990s, a period characterized by high inflation. As inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959063