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We study experimental markets in which participants face incentives modeled upon those prevailing in markets for managed funds. Each participant's portfolio is periodically evaluated at market value and ranked in a league table according to short-term paper returns. Those who rank highly attract...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124787
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317671
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406440
In this note, we present a novel computerized real effort task based on moving sliders across a screen which overcomes many of the drawbacks of existing real effort tasks. The task was first developed and used by us in Gill and Prowse (American Economic Review, forthcoming). We outline the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122979
Atmospheric pollution was an important side effect of coal-fired industrialisation in the nineteenth century. In Britain emissions of black smoke were on the order of fifty times as high as they were a century later. In this paper we examine the effects of these emissions on child development by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966821
We study the effect of team decision-making on bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets of the kind introduced by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). We find that populating such markets with teams of size two instead of individuals significantly reduces the severity of mispricing. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155154
We study the individual behavior of students and workers in an experiment where they repeatedly face the same …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096450
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159743
of our study was to examine whether and how deep parameters such as time and risk preferences affect the intention to … migrate, our study was transformed into a natural experiment owing to two large earthquakes that shook the Tirana area during … control) on the effect of natural disasters on time and risk preferences. We find unambiguous effects towards more risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838466