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Saint-Paul, Gilles - 2019

Economists recommend to partly redistribute gains to losers from a structural reform, which in many cases may be required for making the reform politically viable. However, taxation is distortionary. Then, it is unclear that compensatory transfers can support a Pareto-improving reform. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896759

Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy and Real Wage Growth : Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Andini, Corrado - 2014

Using Difference-in-Differences estimation and data from the European Community Household Panel, this paper suggests that the fixed exchange-rate policy adopted by Italy in the 1997-2000 period has reduced the real hourly wage growth of Italian full-time workers with permanent contracts, on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039598

Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate

Pham, Binh Thai - 2019

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881

Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Current Account Imbalances within a Currency Union

Baas, Timo - 2018

trade result in an asymmetric reaction to an otherwise symmetric shock. In this context, we show that oil price shocks can …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930946

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi - 2012

-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107701

The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in the Process of Real and Nominal Convergence

D'Adamo, Gaetano - 2013

During the last decade, economists have intensively searched for evidence on the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) hypothesis in explaining nominal convergence. One general result is that B-S can at best explain only part of the excess inflation observed in the European catching-up...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074886

The German Labor Market During the Great Recession : Shocks and Institutions

Gehrke, Britta - 2018

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909849

Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129098

Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations

Dufourt, Frédéric - 2009

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157753

Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics

2020

Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829214

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