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China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121741
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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
Ha, Jongrim - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840446
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The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship : Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy
Congregado, Emilio - 2009
This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764085
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Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany
Marczak, Martyna - 2010
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137519
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How Does the Economic Uncertainty Affect Asset Prices Under Normal and Financial Distress Times?
Balcilar, Mehmet; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Ozdemir, Huseyin - 2022
By using a nonlinear VAR model, we investigate whether the response of the US stock and housing markets to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. Our model allows us to change the response of the US financial markets to volatility shocks in periods of normal and financial distress....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406435
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Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate
Pham, Binh Thai - 2019
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
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Wage Cyclicalities and Labor Market Dynamics at the Establishment Level : Theory and Evidence
Merkl, Christian - 2017
Using the new AWFP dataset that covers all German establishments, we document a substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of establishments' average real wages over the business cycle. While the median establishments' real wages are procyclical, there is a large fraction of establishments with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946571
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Endogenous Labor Market Participation and the Business Cycle
Haefke, Christian - 2006
Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780475
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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data
Askitas, Nikos - 2011
-driven economic telemetry, which we suggest should be established more around the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129098
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The Cyclicality of Effective Wages within Employer-Employee Matches in a Rigid Labor Market
Anger, Silke - 2011
This study analyzes real wage cyclicality for male full-time workers within employer-employee matches in Germany over the period 1984-2004. Five different wage measures are compared: the standard hourly wage rate; hourly wage earnings including overtime and bonus pay; the effective wage, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129932