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We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840446
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121741
errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317671
forecast for the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028146
Many literatures investigate the causal impact of income on economic outcomes, for example in the context of intergenerational transmission or well-being and health. Some studies have proposed to use employer wage differentials and in particular industry affiliation as an instrument for income....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099731
Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764650
startup characteristics to forecast the performance of newly started enterprises over a five years' time horizon. The … accuracy are low. To forecast the two innovation-related performance outcomes well, we only need to include a set of variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839061
This article introduces lassopack, a suite of programs for regularized regression in Stata. lassopack implements lasso, square-root lasso, elastic net, ridge regression, adaptive lasso and post-estimation OLS. The methods are suitable for the high-dimensional setting where the number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894061