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The risk of default that business firms face is very significant and differs widely across countries. This paper … explores the links between countries' business conditions and international trade embedment and the default risk at the country … default risk of firms which operate in these environments. The predictions are in accord with readily available data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128748
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828600
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317671
Using a country-industry panel dataset (EUKLEMS) we uncover a robust empirical regularity, namely that high-risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133623
China's household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-saving profile has become U-shaped. Using a panel of urban Chinese households covering 1989-2006, we document a sharp increase in income uncertainty. While the permanent variance of household income was stable,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135632
are too impatient to save and too risk averse to take the sort of chances needed to accumulate wealth. The empirical … the issues confounding previous analyses of the links between risk preferences and well-being. Our sample includes more … on risk preferences, we find little evidence of robust links between risk aversion and well-being. However, when we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136481
More often than not production processes are the joint endeavor of people having different abilities and productivities. Such production processes and the associated surplus production are often not fully transparent in the sense that the relative contributions of involved agents are blurred;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139946
in levels of fatal risk. The paper contrasts VSL estimates from conventional analysis with the bounds obtained under this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139964