We study short-term market risks implied by weekly S&P 500 index options. The introduction of weekly options has … short-term risks. Such short-dated options provide an easy and direct way to study market volatility and jump risks. Unlike … shape of the negative market jump tail risk which is not spanned by market volatility. Incidents of such tail shape shifts …

estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and …

One measure of the health of the Social Security system is the difference between the market value of the trust fund … future uncertainties? We think it is important to use market value. Since claims on accrued benefits are not currently traded … in financial markets, we cannot directly observe a market value. In this paper, we use a model to estimate what the …

is the U.S. Social Security System's net liability to working-age Americans. Marking this debt to market makes a big … difference; its market value is 23 percent larger than the Social Security trustees' valuation method suggests …