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Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011

This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285520

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, … - 2009

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focus on short run...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276267

Infinite dimensional VARs and factor models

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007

dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the … number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is shown that under such restrictions, an infinite-dimensional VAR (or … IVAR) can be arbitrarily well characterized by a large number of finite-dimensional models in the spirit of the global VAR …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276258

Predictability of asset returns and the efficient market hypothesis

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2010

considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market efficiency. The paper then focuses on the theoretical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276268

Real Time Econometrics

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - 2004

This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276178

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2004

This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of log per capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also proposed, which suggests that all such output gap pairs must be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276183

Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective

Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2008

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276262