We combine two techniques to consistently estimate the effect of active labour market programmes and, in particular, active labour market policy regimes. Our aim is to explicitly estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes. Based on Danish data (1998- 2002) from administrative...

We describe the statistical model used for profiling new unemployed workers in Denmark. When a worker – during his or her first six months in unemployment – enters the employment office for the first time, this model predicts whether he or she will be unemployed for more than six months from...

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed...

Randomized experiments provide policy relevant treatment effects if there are no spillovers between participants and nonparticipants. We show that this assumption is violated for a Danish activation program for unemployed workers. Using a difference-in-difference model we show that the...

We analyze the effects of four randomized social experiments, involving early and intensive active labour market policy, conducted in Denmark in 2008. The experiments entailed different combinations of early and intensive treatment in terms of meetings and active labour market programmes. The...

This paper investigates the effect of sanctions of unemployment insurance benefits on the exit rate from unemployment for a sample of Danish unemployed. According to the findings are that even moderate sanctions have rather large effects. For both males and females the exit rate increases by...

We analyse the effects of active social policy (ASP) on the dynamics of welfare dependence. We evaluate the impact of various ASP measures (employment and training) on the duration of welfare spells and subsequent employment spells, based on data from Denmark. The results show that employment...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of classroom training programmes on individual unemployment rates in Denmark. In 1994 a social experiment was conducted, where unemployed applicants for labour market training were randomised into treatment and control groups. We formulate and estimate...

This paper uses a social experiment in labour market policy - providing early and intensive monitoring and programme participation in unemployment spells - to assess the nature of labour market policy effectiveness. The experiment was conducted in two counties in Denmark during the winter of...