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Impact of the 1999 earthquakes on the outcome of the 2002 parliamentary election in Turkey

Akarca, Ali T.; Tansel, Aysit - 2008

parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268575

Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the … indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267661

Competing on good politicians

Galasso, Vincenzo; Nannicini, Tommaso - 2009

Is electoral competition good for political selection? To address this issue, we introduce a theoretical model in which ideological parties select candidates between party loyalists and experts, and allocate them into the electoral districts. Non-ideological voters, who care about national and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269346

Vote-buying and reciprocity

Finan, Frederico S.; Schechter, Laura - 2011

While vote-buying is common, little is known about how politicians determine who to target. We argue that vote-buying can be sustained by an internalized norm of reciprocity. Receiving money engenders feelings of obligation. Combining survey data on vote-buying with an experiment-based measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286272

Competing approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2006

basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy … of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations …. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267283

Sozioökonomische Determinanten extremistischer Wahlerfolge in Deutschland: Das Beispiel der Europawahlen 1994 und 1999

Rotte, Ralph; Steininger, Martin - 2000

Empirical research on the determinants of right and left-wing extremist election successes is still dominated by … Germany. We use a new data set on the level of German counties (Kreise) that is analyzed econometrically by a FGLS random …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262441

E-lections: Voting behavior and the internet

Falck, Oliver; Gold, Robert; Heblich, Stephan - 2012

This paper analyses the effect of information disseminated by the Internet on voting behavior. We address endogeneity in Internet availability by exploiting regional and technological peculiarities of the preexisting voice telephony network that hinder the roll-out of fixed-line broadband...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282266

Job loss fears and (extremist) party identification: First evidence from panel data

Geishecker, Ingo; Siedler, Thomas - 2012

There is a large body of literature analyzing the relationship between objective economic conditions and voting behavior, but there is very little evidence of how perceived economic insecurity impacts on political preferences. Using seventeen years of household panel data from the German...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289928

Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model

Bonin, Holger; Schneider, Hilmar - 2004

social insurance reform in Germany suggest that previous calibration-based results accurately indicate the direction of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261783

Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

Fertig, Michael; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2000

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262391

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