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Heckman, James J.; Pinto, Rodrigo - 2022

This paper examines the econometric causal model for policy analysis developed by the seminal ideas of Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two popular causal frameworks: Neyman-Holland causal model and the do-calculus. The Neyman-Holland causal model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177722

Predicting Road Conditions with Internet Search

Askitas, Nikos - 2015

am) and in the evening (5 pm to 7 pm). I propose such searches as a way of forecasting road conditions. The main result …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401780

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Forecasting with spatial panel data

Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Pirotte, Alain - 2009

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268987

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

The Internet as a Data Source for Advancement in Social Sciences

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2015

. Internet data can successfully be applied to a very wide range of human resource issues including forecasting (e.g. of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010513162

Prediction markets for economic forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287666

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252271

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710

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