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Using combined data from population censuses and Urban Household Surveys, we study the effects of demographic structural changes on the rise in household saving in China. Variations in fines across provinces on unauthorized births under the one-child policy and in cohort-specific fertility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291447
We analyze the consumption and wealth inequality in an OLG model with mandatory pension systems. Our framework features … in TFP growth. We show four main results. First, increasing longevity translates to substantial increases in aggregate … consumption inequality and wealth inequality. Second, a pension system reform from a defined benefit to a defined contribution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931586
Many countries consider rising fertility through pro-family policies as a solution to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity. However, an increased number of births implies immediate private costs and only delayed public benefits of younger and larger population. We propose using an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012005973
The demographic transition is introduced into the otherwise standard Ramsey model to generate multiple equilibria, poverty traps, and demography-driven cycles. The model is calibrated for global data to explore the demographic conditions under which multiplicity is realized. Three cases arise,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274561
's poorest but rapidly rising region. We find that under plausible assumptions on consumption growth and redistribution …, eliminating poverty by 2030 is out of the region's reach. Even under our 'best case' scenario of accelerated growth and … agenda. Policies need to focus on mutually reinforcing objectives of making growth stronger, resilient to shocks, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352257
We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011873445
producing human capital. We also demonstrate that this attenuation effect tends to concentrate generational consumption risk … into an i.i.d. generational consumption shock. In other words, each generation bears all of the risk associated with their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011816630
Using combined data from population censuses and Urban Household Surveys, we study the effects of demographic structural changes on the rise in household saving in China. Variations in fines across provinces on unauthorized births under the one-child policy and in cohort-specific fertility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010791517
's poorest but rapidly rising region. We find that under plausible assumptions on consumption growth and redistribution …, eliminating poverty by 2030 is out of the region's reach. Even under our 'best case' scenario of accelerated growth and … agenda. Policies need to focus on mutually reinforcing objectives of making growth stronger, resilient to shocks, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010764597
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262391