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Groupthink: Collective delusions in organizations and markets

Bénabou, Roland - 2013

This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293122

Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes

Kuchler, Theresa; Zafar, Basit - 2015

We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401707

Intended College Attendance: Evidence from an Experiment on College Returns and Cost

Bleemer, Zachary; Zafar, Basit - 2015

Despite a robust college premium, college attendance rates in the US have remained stagnant and exhibit a substantial socioeconomic gradient. We focus on information gaps – specifically, incomplete information about college benefits and costs – as a potential explanation for these patterns....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401724

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: The Effect of Crime News Coverage on Crime Perception and Trust

Velásquez, Daniel; Medina, Santiago; Yamada, Gustavo; … - 2018

Crime perception has increased in Peru in recent years, as in other developing and developed countries, in spite of the … news at the province level and estimate the effect of news media on crime perception. We measure coverage as a function of … people's perception about the probability of being a crime victim. We find the opposite for positive crime news. However, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984616

The threat effect of participation in active labor market programs on job search behavior of migrants in Germany

Bergemann, Annette; Caliendo, Marco; van den Berg, Gerard J. - 2011

Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects may differ according to ethnic origin. We apply a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job search behavioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274689

Have you heard the news? How real-life expectations react to publicity

van der Wiel, Karen - 2009

As evidence is accumulating that subjective expectations influence behavior and that these expectations are sometimes biased, it becomes policy-relevant to know how to influence individuals' expectations. Information in the media is likely to affect how people picture the future. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277212

Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City

Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Veronica - 2020

A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases when processing information about themselves, but less is known about the underlying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regarding academic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180138

Framing the Predicted Impacts of COVID-19 Prophylactic Measures in Terms of Lives Saved Rather Than Deaths Is More Effective for Older People

Biroli, Pietro; Bosworth, Steven J.; Della Giusta, Marina; … - 2020

This paper contributes to the literature on public health communication by studying how the framing of a message relaying the forecast impact of COVID-19 prevention measures affects compliance behaviour amongst both the young and old. A representative sample of survey respondents in the UK and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322552

Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020

Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322620

Information Frictions among Firms and Households

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2022

We survey samples of German firms and households to document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than households', consistent with higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177731

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