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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; … - 2020

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207681

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar; Zhang, Boyang - 2015

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307424

Optimal price indices for targeting inflation under incomplete markets

Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2010

In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. In this paper, we develop a twosector two-good closed economy new Keynesian model to study the optimal choice of price index in markets with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272685

Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation under Incomplete Markets

Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2010

In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. In this paper, we develop a two-sector two-good closed economy new Keynesian model to study the optimal choice of price index in markets with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531751

Inflation, Minimum Wage and Other Wages: An Econometric Study on French Macroeconomic Data

L'Horty, Yannick; Rault, Christophe - 2003

This paper examines the set of interdependences between the formation of wages, prices and the minimum wage (SMIC) through a vectorial error correction model estimated on French quarterly macroeconomic data covering the 1970-1/1999-4 period. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261586

Inflation, Minimum Wage and Other Wages: An Econometric Study on French Macroeconomic Data

L'Horty, Yannick; Rault, Christophe - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005233863

Predicting Road Conditions with Internet Search

Askitas, Nikos - 2015

am) and in the evening (5 pm to 7 pm). I propose such searches as a way of forecasting road conditions. The main result …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401780

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Forecasting with spatial panel data

Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Pirotte, Alain - 2009

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268987

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

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