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On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?
Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584
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Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180
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On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?
Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752
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Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710
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What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?
Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar; Zhang, Boyang - 2015
In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307424
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Optimal price indices for targeting inflation under incomplete markets
Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2010
In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. In this paper, we develop a twosector two-good closed economy new Keynesian model to study the optimal choice of price index in markets with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272685
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Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation under Incomplete Markets
Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2010
In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. In this paper, we develop a two-sector two-good closed economy new Keynesian model to study the optimal choice of price index in markets with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531751
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Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach
Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2002
In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262765
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269318
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Expected inflation, sunspots equilibria and persistent unemployment fluctuations
Dufourt, Frédéric; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, Leonor - 2009
We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271258