What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a … Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …

height to a statistically significant degree. A variety of estimation methods, tests and specifications yield robust results …

achieve similar volatility than fully deregulated labor markets. Flexibility at the margin produces a gap in separation costs … de labor market volatility. This increased volatility is partially reverted when limitations in the duration and number … explain the similar volatility observed in many regulated OECD labor markets with flexibility at the margin vis-à-vis the …

combining data from multiple surveys, we create an integrated measure of volatility in available household resources, accounting …

common component, we find evidence for a ?world business cycle? as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …