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Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - 2004

This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276178

Real Time Econometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763536

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752

On Modeling Household Labor Supply with Taxation

Bargain, Olivier - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

Discrete-choice models provide a simple way of representing utility-maximizing labor supply decisions in the presence of highly nonlinear and possibly non-convex budget constraints. Thus, it is not surprising that they are so extensively used for ex-ante evaluation of taxbenefit reforms. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822130

Do Temporary Contracts Affect TFP? Evidence from Spanish Manufacturing Firms

Dolado, Juan José; Stucchi, Rodolfo - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

This paper evaluates the impact of the widespread use of fixed-term contracts in Spain on firms' TFP, via its effect on workers' effort. We propose a simple analytical framework showing that, under plausible conditions, workers' effort depends positively on their perception (for given level of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822188

Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation

Imbens, Guido W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

Many empirical questions in economics and other social sciences depend on causal effects of programs or policies. In the last two decades much research has been done on the econometric and statistical analysis of the effects of such programs or treatments. This recent theoretical literature has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822300

Estimating the Causal Effect of Gun Prevalence on Homicide Rates: A Local Average Treatment Effect Approach

Kovandzic, Tomislav; Schaffer, Mark; Kleck, Gary - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

This paper uses a “local average treatment effect” (LATE) framework in an attempt to disentangle the separate effects of criminal and noncriminal gun prevalence on violence rates. We first show that a number of previous studies have failed to properly address the problems of endogeneity,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822320

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