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Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276108

Global Mobility and the Threat of Pandemics: Evidence from Three Centuries

Clemens, Michael A.; Ginn, Thomas - 2020

Countries restrict the overall extent of international travel and migration to balance the expected costs and benefits … respond? A simple theoretical framework predicts that reduced exposure to pre-pandemic international mobility causes slightly … 2009. We find that in all cases, even a draconian 50 percent reduction in pre-pandemic international mobility is associated …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012497848

Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD

Gerdtham, Ulf-G.; Ruhm, Christopher J. - 2003

This study uses aggregate data for 23 OECD countries over the 1960-1997 period to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and fatalities. The main finding is that total mortality and deaths from several common causes increase when labor markets strengthen. For instance,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262242

Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle

Kalwij, Adriaan S. - 2001

Using a large panel of administrative records this study confirms the predictions of the ranking model of Blanchard and Diamond (1994) that an individual?s probability of leaving unemployment decreases with unemployment duration and increases with economic growth. However, the ranking model of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262575

Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects

Kalwij, Adriaan S. - 2001

This study examines individuals? unemployment experiences from the age of 18 up to the age of 35 using a large panel of administrative records on unemployment related benefit claims of men in the United Kingdom over the past two decades. The main focus is on the extent to which individuals?...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262576

Fatal fluctuations? Cyclicality in infant mortality in India

Bhalotra, Sonia - 2007

This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on infant mortality in India and investigates likely mechanisms. A recent OECD-dominated literature shows that mortality at most ages is pro-cyclical but similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce, and both income risk and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268267

The dynamics of women's labour supply in developing countries

Bhalotra, Sonia; Umaña-Aponte, Marcela - 2010

This paper investigates cyclicality in women's labour supply motivated by the hypothesis that it contributes to smoothing household consumption in environments characterized by income volatility. We use comparable individual data on about 1.1 million women in 63 developing and transition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269754

The impact of aggregate and sectoral fluctuations on training decisions

Caponi, Vincenzo; Kayahan, Cevat Burc; Plesca, Miana - 2009

So far the literature has found that the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on training decisions is ambiguous. On the one hand, the opportunity cost to train is lower during downturns, and thus training should be counter-cyclical. On the other hand, a positive shock may be related to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271576

The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy

Congregado, Emilio; Golpe, Antonio A.; Parker, Simon C. - 2009

This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276150

Elasticity of supply to the firm and the business cycle

Depew, Briggs; Sorensen, Todd - 2011

A body of recent empirical work has found strong evidence that the labor elasticity of supply to the firm is finite, implying that firms may have wage setting power. However, these studies capture only snapshots of the parameter. We study this parameter over a period that provides substantial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280718

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