Rwanda in the early 90s, and using micro data to carry out econometric analysis, this paper finds that households and …

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a … Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …

induced by changes in wind across years, I show that higher levels of pollution lead to decreased agricultural productivity …, with large changes in productivity being common. The negative effects of pollution are larger in areas growing more labor …-intensive crops, indicating that the pollution works at least partly through direct effects on labor productivity. Finally, combining …