Showing 1 - 10 of 276
. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261586
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269318
, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations …: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276267
This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282525
This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550529
money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527294
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700993
. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005233863
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278651
An empirical analysis of the impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is … presented. Results based on a 20 country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of … inflation to its reduced form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262222