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While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267377
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267661
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762416
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703211
of the criticisms of the current subsidy system, however, is that it overemphasizes work and does little to encourage … care subsidies for child development. In this paper, we provide a systematic assessment of the impact of subsidy receipt on … relationship between child care subsidies and child development. In particular, our results suggest that subsidy receipt in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269366
A complete account of the U.S. child care subsidy system requires an understanding of its implications for both … fill this gap by examining the impact of child care subsidy receipt on maternal health and the quality of child … of family well-being. In addition, we attempt to handle the possibility of non-random selection into subsidy receipt by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282190
By using a nonlinear VAR model, we investigate whether the response of the US stock and housing markets to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. Our model allows us to change the response of the US financial markets to volatility shocks in periods of normal and financial distress....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013351835
We estimate the transmission of the pandemic shock in 2020 to prices in the residential and commercial real estate market by causal machine learning, using new granular data at the municipal level for Germany. We exploit differences in the incidence of Covid infections or short-time work at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470462
What role does labor play in firms? market value? We explore this question using a production-based asset pricing model with frictions in the adjustment of both capital and labor. We posit that hiring of labor is akin to investment in capital and that the two interact, with the interaction being...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261658
We study the effect of team decision-making on bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets of the kind introduced by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). We find that populating such markets with teams of size two instead of individuals significantly reduces the severity of mispricing. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269599