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The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269318
An important issue in the analysis of cross-sectional dependence which has received renewed interest in the past few years is the need for a better understanding of the extent and nature of such cross dependencies. In this paper we focus on measures of cross-sectional dependence and how such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282124
high during 2016-2019, keeping inflation below the Reserve Bank's target band. Optimal monetary policy in 2016-2019 would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013426410
inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf … bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can replicate the strong persistence and heterogeneity observed in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271258
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274586
. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261586
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278651
reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271739
The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in unemployment are viewed as "chain reactions" of responses to labor market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting lagged adjustment processes. In the context of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273099
with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on nine major oil …-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil income is established for six of … three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth rate will vanish …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282525