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Prediction markets in theory and practice

Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as information markets, idea futures or event futures, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267475

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter … estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

An empirical growth model for major oil exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2012

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focuses on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282525

How Reliable Are Social Safety Nets? Value and Accessibility in Situations of Acute Economic Need

Immervoll, Herwig; Hyee, Raphaela; Fernandez, Rodrigo; … - 2022

Social protection systems use a range of entitlement criteria. First-tier support typically requires contributions or past employment in many countries, while safety net benefits are granted on the basis of need. In a context of volatile and uncertain labour markets, careful and continuous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013351771

Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross-Sections

Dang, Hai-Anh; Lanjouw, Peter F. - 2022

Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014296571

Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers

van den Berg, Gerard J.; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; … - 2023

Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377329

Childhood Circumstances and Health of American and Chinese Older Adults: A Machine Learning Evaluation of Inequality of Opportunity in Health

Huo, Shutong; Feng, Derek; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi - 2024

Childhood circumstances may impact senior health, prompting this study to introduce novel machine learning methods to assess their individual and collective contributions to health inequality in old age. Using the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the China Health and Retirement...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014533911

Let's Roll Back! The Challenging Task of Regulating Temporary Contracts

Fiaschi, Davide; Tealdi, Cristina - 2024

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a reform introduced in Italy in 2018 (Decreto Dignità), which increased the rigidity of employment protection legislation (EPL) of temporary contracts, rolling back previous policies, to reduce job instability. We use longitudinal labour force data from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534035

Machine Learning and Multiple Abortions

Kumar, Pradeep; Nicodemo, Catia; Oreffice, Sonia; … - 2024

This study employs six Machine Learning methods - Logit, Lasso-Logit, Ridge-Logit, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and an Ensemble - alongside registry data on abortions in Spain from 2011-2019 to predict multiple abortions and assess monetary savings through targeted interventions. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015045482