averaging over forecasts from different models. Second, we look at different estimation windows. We find that averaging over … estimation windows is at least as effective as averaging over different models and both complement each other. Third, we explore …

combining data from multiple surveys, we create an integrated measure of volatility in available household resources, accounting … different groups are exposed to economic risk. As the ESI derives from a data-independent conceptual foundation, it can be …

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …

Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …

different policy implications. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative …

achieve similar volatility than fully deregulated labor markets. Flexibility at the margin produces a gap in separation costs … de labor market volatility. This increased volatility is partially reverted when limitations in the duration and number … explain the similar volatility observed in many regulated OECD labor markets with flexibility at the margin vis-à-vis the …

common component, we find evidence for a ?world business cycle? as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …