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Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267661

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703211

Less myth, more measurement: Decomposing excess returns from the 1989 minimum wage hike

Lin, Carl - 2012

In the book Myth and Measurement, Card and Krueger (1995) examine the economic impact of the 1989 minimum wage hike on the welfare of 110 firms which employ a disproportionate number of minimum-wage workers. Their results show mixed evidence that excess returns associated with news about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282630

Decomposing excess returns in stochastic linear models

Lin, Carl - 2011

We present a theorem helpful in estimating the mean and variance of a linear function with arbitrary multivariate randomness in its coefficients and variables. We derive a generalized decomposition result from two random linear functions in which the result can be applied to most models using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286879

Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities

Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006

While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267377

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762416

Growth, volatility and political instability: non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896 - 2000

Campos, Nauro F.; Karanasos, Menelaos G. - 2007

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268236

Less Myth, More Measurement: Decomposing Excess Returns from the 1989 Minimum Wage Hike

Lin, Carl - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416930

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252271

How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions – from the economic effects of party control of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371908

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