This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a … Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …

achieve similar volatility than fully deregulated labor markets. Flexibility at the margin produces a gap in separation costs … de labor market volatility. This increased volatility is partially reverted when limitations in the duration and number … explain the similar volatility observed in many regulated OECD labor markets with flexibility at the margin vis-à-vis the …

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental …