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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242
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Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Wolfers, Justin - 2005
In September 2002, a new market in Economic Derivatives was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267681
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Nowcasting business cycles using toll data
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278651
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Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Wolfers, Justin - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005
In September 2002, a new market in "Economic Derivatives" was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700980
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Taking a Second Chance: Entrepreneurial Restarters in Germany
Wagner, Joachim - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2002
Folklore has it that the comparatively low proportion of self-employed in Germany is in part due to a habit that might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822063
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How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany
Knoppik, Christoph; Beissinger, Thomas - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2001
Many of the recent attempts to find evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity in micro data have suffered from a number of problems, including composition bias and the effects of measurement error. In order to avoid these problems we explicitly model the determinants of wage changes and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822114
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The Persistent Decline in Unionization in Western and Eastern Germany, 1980-2004: What Can We Learn from a Decomposition Analysis?
Schnabel, Claus; Wagner, Joachim - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006
western Germany from 1980 to 2004 and in eastern Germany from 1992 to 2004. Such a negative trend can be observed for men and … worker (significant in western Germany only). A decomposition analysis shows that differences in union density over time and … between eastern and western Germany to a large degree cannot be explained by differences in the characteristics of employees …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822128
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Dismissal Protection and Worker Flows in Small Establishments
Bauer, Thomas K.; Bender, Stefan; Bonin, Holger - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004
Based on a large employer-employee matched data set, the paper investigates the effects of variable enforcement of German dismissal protection legislation on the employment dynamics in small establishments. Specifically, using a difference-in-differences approach, we study the effect of changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822158
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Do Works Councils Inhibit Investment?
Addison, John T.; Schank, Thorsten; Schnabel, Claus; … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005
context of Germany where the works council is the analogue of workplace unionism. Using parametric and nonparametric methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822189
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Norm-Based Trade Union Membership: Evidence for Germany
Goerke, Laszlo; Pannenberg, Markus - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2003
for social custom effects in the determination of union membership. Using panel data for Germany, we find evidence for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822193