Almost all countries announced fiscal support programs once COVID-19 hit. However, there was significant diversity in the magnitude and composition of these fiscal stimulus programs. These differences were determined by myriad political, financial, social, and economic factors - these factors...

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of "safe haven" currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using new...

This article assesses the extent to which government-administered financial shocks and lower interest rates can account for the massive accumulation of bank excess reserves in the Great Depression. Both factors are shown to be statistically significant. Financial shocks did exert astatistically...

We analyse the economic conditions (the "shocks") behind currency movements and show how that analysis can help address a range of questions, focusing on exchange rate pass-through to prices. We build on a methodology previously developed for the United Kingdom and adapt this framework so that...

How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset...

The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the collapse using cellular...

Was foreign currency denominated debt a determinant of exchange rate and monetary policy during the Great Depression? Policy makers of the day thought so. High-frequency bond price data show depreciation was associated with elevated risk premia on public debt. We also show that foreign currency...

Has the occurrence of "extreme capital flow movements"--episodes of sudden surges, stops, flight and retrenchment--changed since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)? This paper addresses this question by updating and building on the dataset and methodology introduced in Forbes and Warnock (2012)...

This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global...