We employ theory-grounded sectoral gravity models to estimate the effects of various steps of European product market integration on trade flows. We embed these estimates into a static Ricardian quantitative trade model featuring 43 countries and 50 goods and services sectors. Paying attention...

Since July 2013, the EU and the United States have been negotiating a preferential trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We use a multicountry, multi-industry Ricardian trade model with national and international inputoutput linkages to quantify its...

The European Union is the world’s largest and deepest free trade zone. Amongst its members, it has abolished tariffs and lowered non-tariff barriers. This has led to trade creation within Europe and to trade diversion between EU countries and outsiders. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment...

We analyze monopoly power in a market for a complementary fossil resource like oil in a two country/two period model with international trade in general equilibrium. Focusing on the complex interplay of capital and resource market, we elaborate how these effects feed back into the resource...

In this paper, I study the distributional consequences of the German Hartz reforms, a set of four comprehensive labor market reforms implemented in Germany between 2003 and 2005. I exploit regional variation in the intensity German counties were affected by the reforms to estimate the causal...

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...

This paper investigates the effects of implementing a dual income tax (DIT) in Germany. We follow the reform proposal of the German Council of Economic Advisors (2003) and analyze its implications on capital formation, investment and welfare using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model....

This paper investigates the effects of implementing a dual income tax (DIT) in Germany. We follow the reform proposal of the German Council of Economic Advisors (2003) and analyze its implications on capital formation, investment and welfare using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model....

This paper describes the ifo Tax and Transfer Behavioral Microsimulation Model (ifoMSM-TTL), a policy microsimulation model for Germany. The model uses household microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel and firm data from the German Linked Employer-Employee Dataset. This microsimulation...