I investigate how political uncertainty influences corporate investment decisions employing a unique panel dataset of German manufacturing firms. I use data on firms' self-reported investment realizations, plans and revisions. The firm-specific user cost of capital captures the current...

Using microdata that serve as the foundation of the ifo Business Climate Index, Germany's leading business cycle indicator, I examine whether political uncertainty influences how firm owners perceive their present state and future development of business. I use state election months as...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...

Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....

Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information about firm-specific developments or information about the aggregate economy....

This article presents a comprehensive approach to probabilistic linkage of German company data using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing techniques. Here, the long-running ifo Institute surveys are linked to financial information in the Orbis database by addressing the unique...