This article sheds light on the impact of the media on economists' expectations for future economic developments. We conducted a worldwide economic expert survey and find that the media provides most economists with valuable information that influences their expectations. This applies...

Im September 2013 veröffentlichte die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) ein neues Ökonomenranking. Dieses berücksichtigt neben der Forschungsleistung auch noch zwei weitere Aspekte: Medienpräsenz und Politikberatung. In diesem Artikel wird das FAZ-Ranking einer kritischen Analyse...

Different studies provide surprisingly a large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions...

The Ifo Institute for Economic Research has been conducting regular business surveys since its foundation in 1949. The most well-known of Ifo's surveys is the Ifo Business Survey (ifo Konjunkturtest). The micro data of the Ifo Business Survey are accessible to external researchers on-site at Ifo...

Das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in München führt seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 regelmäßige Unternehmensbefragungen durch. Bisher bestand kein institutionalisierter Datenzugang zu den Mikrodaten für Forscher außerhalb des Institutes. Die Mikrodaten werden nunmehr im ifo...

The objective of this paper is to investigate the trade potential of the fifteen old EU countries with the ten new members having joined on May 1st, 2004. Our focus lies not so much on the integration process already having taken place, but on the importance of institutional factors for trade....

In socio-economic sciences the RePEc network (Research Papers in Economics) has become an essential source both for the spread of existing and new economic research. Furthermore the calculation of rankings for authors and academic institutions play a central role. We provide some cautionary...

Im September 2015 veröffentlichten das Handelsblatt und die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung nahezu gleichzeitig ihre Ökonomen-Rankings. Diese zwei inzwischen regelmäßig erscheinenden (zwei-)jährlichen Rankings unterscheiden sich von dem monatlich erscheinenden RePEc-Ranking sowohl im Ansatz...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act constitutes the largest change to the US tax system since the 1980s and thoroughly alters the way in which multinational companies are taxed. Current assessments on the reform's international impact vary widely. This article sheds light on the tax reform's expected...