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Tahoun, Ahmed - 2020

We document a direct channel through which financial institutions contribute to the net worth of members of the U.S. Congress, particularly those sitting on the finance committees in the Senate and the House of Representatives. These individuals report greater levels of leverage and new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855290

Germany and China Have Savings Gluts, the USA is a Sump : So What?

Taylor, Lance - 2020

funds theory, which is institutionally inadequate. More plausible analyses of the persistent trade imbalance can be derived …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825907

Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis

Woodford, Michael - 2015

A prolonged period of extremely low nominal interest rates has not resulted in high inflation. This has led to increased interest in the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates may themselves cause inflation to be lower. The fact that standard models of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014525

A Theory of How and Why Central-Bank Culture Supports Predatory Risk-Taking at Megabanks

Kane, Edward J. - 2016

This paper applies Schein's model of organizational culture to financial firms and their prudential regulators. It identifies a series of hard-to-change cultural norms and assumptions that support go-for-broke risk-taking by megabanks that meets the every-day definition of theft. The problem is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000930

Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis

Guzman, Martin - 2016

This paper analyzes what assumptions on formation of expectations are consistent with Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and its corollaries. The FIH establishes that financial relations evolve over time turning a stable system into an unstable one. Financial crises would be more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000947

Modeling Myths : On the Need for Dynamic Realism in DICE and other Equilibrium Models of Global Climate Mitigation

Grubb, Michael - 2020

We analyze and critique how optimizing Integrated Assessment Models, and specifically the widely-used DICE model, represent abatement costs. Many such models assume temporal independence – abatement costs in one period are not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841819

The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis : Model Ambiguity, Consistent Representations of Market Forecasts, and Sentiment

Frydman, Roman - 2017

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953086

The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis : Model Ambiguity, Consistent Representations of Market Forecasts, and Sentiment

Frydman, Roman - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953166

Race to the Bottom : Low Productivity, Market Power, and Lagging Wages

Taylor, Lance - 2018

“Dualism” in the structure of production across sectors of the US economy, employment bysector, productivity levels and growth, real wages, and intersectoral terms-of trade increasedmarkedly between1990 and 2016. The discussion focuses on 16 sectors. Seven were “stagnant” --...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910292

New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns

Cavusoglu, Nevin - 2019

the implications of two alternative specifications of preferences: one based on expected utility theory and the other on … prospect theory. It also uses survey data to estimate models of ex-ante rather than ex-post returns. The empirical analysis …. Like earlier studies, we find little support for the expected utility theory model. By contrast, the prospect theory model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891242