During the twentieth century, economic sanctions became more prevalent. In the twenty-first century they have become a frequently used tool for governments seeking to change the behaviour of other countries. An extensive research literature exists on the effectiveness of sanctions. Overall the...

The Whitehall Briefing (leaked in January but only officially released this month) is not the last word on the potential long-term economic impact of Brexit, despite claims from others that it ‘proves’ GDP will be lower in ‘all’ scenarios. As the report itself says, it is only ‘draft...

The EU has confirmed that phase 2 of the Brexit talks, covering the future relationship, can now begin. However, there are still no clear answers to the challenges posed by the unique position of Ireland. The UK has committed, subject to specific conditions, to maintain ‘full alignment’ with...

The Brexit ‘divorce bill’ is supposed to settle existing obligations, rather than cover the cost of any future agreements. Some therefore argue that it is simply a matter of honouring past debts and the UK should just pay up. The problem with this approach is that there is no legal certainty...

Much of the discussion of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit has focussed on a chaotic outcome where talks break up without any agreements on the future relationship. However, this outcome would be so bad for all parties that it is highly unlikely. A more credible scenario would involve the UK leaving the...

A ‘no deal’ scenario, in which the UK simply leaves the Single Market and Customs Union in 2019, does not have to be the ‘catastrophe’ that many fear. There would be some new barriers to trade with the EU, but these should be manageable. On the upside, the UK would be able to crack on...

From 1990 to 2010, free trade helped a billion people lift themselves out of extreme poverty. But the pace of liberalisation has since slowed and protectionism is back in fashion. Fortunately, Brexit provides a golden opportunity for the UK to become a global champion of free trade again. This...

In narrow terms, the Prime Minister’s Brexit speech in Florence can be judged against two tests. First, will the offers on the financial settlement and citizens’ rights represent ‘sufficient progress’ to allow talks on the future relationship to begin at last? And second, will the plan...

Like most decisions about Brexit, the choice of future customs arrangements is about getting the trade-offs right. Remaining in a customs union with the EU would not just prevent disruptive border checks. It would also allow tariff-free trade to continue after the UK left the Single Market, and...

On April 16th, Commonwealth Heads of State will meet in London at the start of the UK’s chairmanship of the CHOGM process (which ends in 2020). While it is coincidental that this timing directly overlaps with the UK’s exit from the European Union, many in the UK have turned their focus back...