This paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a version of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England and Wales. They indicate that...

This study sets out a framework to evaluate the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models and applies it to six different models estimated using English & Welsh male mortality data over ages 64-89 and years 1961-2007. The methodology exploits the structure of each model to obtain various...

This paper develops a framework for developing forecasts of future mortality rates. We discuss the suitability of six stochastic mortality models for forecasting future mortality and estimating the density of mortality rates at different ages. In particular, the models are assessed individually...