In recent weeks, fears of a worldwide economic recession have become widespread because more and more symptoms appear that resemble those at the start of the great depression of 1929. However, wrong conclusions may be drawn from similar symptoms unless basic development trends as well as the...

For the meeting of the Association d'Instituts Européens de Conjoncture Economique (AIECE) in May, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Christophe Kamps, and Joachim Scheide prepared the General Report. It is now published as Kiel Discussion Paper 376/377 and supplemented by the country notes of other AIECE...