On the basis of economic theory, what effects can globalisation be expected to have on trade and growth? Does the empirical evidence support this? What developments will the next phase of globalisation bring?

The introduction of the euro was initially expected to boost trade by an enormous percentage. Following many downward revisions of original estimates the current consensus estimate amounts to an increase of about 5 per cent. In view of the initial high expectations this is often seen as a dismal...

The creation of a single currency is deemed to produce further heterogeneity in regional trade, as regions differ in their exposure to trade with other European countries. It is possible to disentangle two separate effects on bilateral trade, namely the “exchange rate volatility effect”...