The international economic development over the last century was characterised by various kinds of cycles. This article focusses on cyclical changes in the net barter terms of trade between primary products and manufactured goods. By comparing and contrasting the present circumstances with those...

This article presents event studies that find a significant effect on dollar bond yield spreads when rating agencies put emerging-market sovereign bonds on review with negative outlook. The finding has two conditional implications. If rating agencies can be turned from late into early warning...