We apply a comprehensive set of survey data, on forecasts for 24 currencies against the dollar, to four topics. (1) We find some predictive power in the survey data (and in the right direction!). As in past tests, the forecasts are nevertheless biased: variability of expected depreciation is...

Exchange rate forecasts are generated using some popular monetary models of exchange rates, in conjunction with several estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality, which entails the following requirements: the forecast and the actual...

This paper presents an alternative method of testing for financial capital mobility in the absence of forward exchange markets. A model of domestic interest rate determination during liberalization is applied to Korean and Taiwanese data. A variety of diagnostic and recursive tests are used to...

Interest rate based tests and savings-investment correlations disagree on the extent of capital mobility in Pacific Rim economies. The apparent success of several East Asian countries in sterilizing capital inflows has also fueled the controversy. This paper argues that previous studies...

This paper documents the evidence for a fiscal model of the Yen/Dollar real exchange rate over the 1974-1994 period. Cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate and productivity, government spending and the real price of oil are estimated using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson...

This paper investigates the relative influence of US and Japanese real interest rates in the determination of local Pacific Rim rates, where influence is defined by the presence of common stochastic trends. Alternatively, we ask whether real rates are driven by the same shocks. Furthermore, the...

On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates--monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks--have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their...