Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...

We offer evidence in this paper that US interest rate policy has an important influence in the determination of credit spreads on emerging market bonds over US benchmark treasuries, and therefore on their cost of capital. Our analysis improves upon the existing literature and understanding, by...

Emerging markets are often exposed to sudden stops of capital inflows. What are the effects of monetary policy in such an environment? To answer this question, the paper proposes a model with the typical elements of an emerging market economy. Credit frictions generate balance sheet effects,...

We examine the extent, causes and consequences of the use of foreign currency as a co-circulating medium of exchange and store of value in Latin America. Using new estimates of the amount of foreign currency in circulation in the form of US dollars, we obtain unique measures of currency...

We examine the extent, causes and consequences of transition countries’ use of foreign currency as a co-circulating medium of exchange and store of value. Using new estimates of foreign cash in circulation, we obtain unique measures of currency substitution, asset substitution, and...

This paper analyses the implications of information dissemination on currency crises in models with self-fulfilling expectations. Following Morris/Shin (1999, 2000), we introduce noisy private and public information, so that under certain conditions for the noise parameters a unique equilibrium...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We...

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...