Emerging markets are often exposed to sudden stops of capital inflows. What are the effects of monetary policy in such an environment? To answer this question, the paper proposes a model with the typical elements of an emerging market economy. Credit frictions generate balance sheet effects,...

This paper examines the Malaysian foreign exchange market efficiency for the USD, Singapore dollar, pound, and yen over the 1980:1-1994:12 period by utilizing Johansen-Juselius (JJ) Maximum Likelihood procedure. The bivariate cointegration results show the absence of cointegration among the...

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand for money in Malaysia over the 1980:1-1994:10 period using cointegration and error correction methodology. The analysis shows that money balance, income, exchange rate, price and interest rate are cointegrated. Thus, the long- run demand for...

The article’s main objective is to investigate the empirical link between the fiscal balance and the current account (i.e. the twin deficits phenomenon). The article focuses on transition economies which are according to their different characteristics divided into three major groups, i.e....

We offer evidence in this paper that US interest rate policy has an important influence in the determination of credit spreads on emerging market bonds over US benchmark treasuries, and therefore on their cost of capital. Our analysis improves upon the existing literature and understanding, by...

The empirical distinction between de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes raises a number of interesting questions. Which factors may induce a de facto peg? Why do countries enforce a peg but do not announce it? Why do countries 'break their promises'? In this paper we show that a stable...

The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and the expected terms of trade....

We apply a comprehensive set of survey data, on forecasts for 24 currencies against the dollar, to four topics. (1) We find some predictive power in the survey data (and in the right direction!). As in past tests, the forecasts are nevertheless biased: variability of expected depreciation is...

Exchange rate forecasts are generated using some popular monetary models of exchange rates, in conjunction with several estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality, which entails the following requirements: the forecast and the actual...