Showing 1 - 10 of 16
The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyzes and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368179
In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368402
demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878-1975. We update that model over 1976-1993, accounting for changed data … follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368427
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368480
In measuring the percentage of foreign-held U.S., German, and Swiss currencies for the period of the 1960s through the 1990s, I obtain estimates much different from those of others. Using currency demand equations implied by cointegrating vectors for Canada, the Netherlands, and Austria, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712664
This paper studies the dependence of velocity on stochastic monetary growth in a model where households demand money … uncertainty leads households to value money for its insurance against adverse endowment shocks. With stochastic monetary growth … the distribution of money balances across households does not settle down to a time invariant distribution, so one aim of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712765
This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model … model is remarkably stable. The dynamics of money demand are important, with price and income elasticities being much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712813
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of the nominal depreciation. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712815
Traditional studies of money demand for both developed and less developed countries have shown that there are periods … of "missing money," that is, there is consistent overprediction of real balances. This paper uses cointegration … results show that financial innovation can account for the instability of money demand observed in these countries. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712846
We use exchange traded options on Canadian dollar futures to estimate the market's risk-neutral distribution for the Canadian dollar in the days before and after the Quebec sovereignty referendum. We employ a relatively new technique that places little a priori structure on the estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498744