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The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Uribe, Martin - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998

In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368402

Money, politics and the post-war business cycle

Faust, Jon; Irons, John - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498761

Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system

Edison, Hali J. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000

The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyzes and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368179

The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993

Ericsson, Neil R.; Hendry, David F.; Prestwich, Kevin M. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1997

demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878-1975. We update that model over 1976-1993, accounting for changed data … follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368427

Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress

Kaminsky, Graciela L. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368480

"Here, dollars, dollars ..."estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution

Doyle, Brian M. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000

In measuring the percentage of foreign-held U.S., German, and Swiss currencies for the period of the 1960s through the 1990s, I obtain estimates much different from those of others. Using currency demand equations implied by cointegrating vectors for Canada, the Netherlands, and Austria, I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712664

Precautionary money balances with aggregate uncertainty

II, Wilbur John Coleman - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1991

This paper studies the dependence of velocity on stochastic monetary growth in a model where households demand money … uncertainty leads households to value money for its insurance against adverse endowment shocks. With stochastic monetary growth … the distribution of money balances across households does not settle down to a time invariant distribution, so one aim of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712765

Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece

Ericsson, Neil R.; Sharma, Sunil - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model … model is remarkably stable. The dynamics of money demand are important, with price and income elasticities being much …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712813

Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew K. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of the nominal depreciation. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712815

Financial innovation and the speed of adjustment of money demand: evidence from Bolivia, Israel, and Venezuela

Copelman, Martina - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

Traditional studies of money demand for both developed and less developed countries have shown that there are periods … of "missing money," that is, there is consistent overprediction of real balances. This paper uses cointegration … results show that financial innovation can account for the instability of money demand observed in these countries. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712846