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Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes

Ahmed, Shaghil - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1999

these countries indicates that real exchange rates are not very responsive to external shocks, in general, and that exchange … rate depreciations tend to be contractionary in the short run. This suggests that rigidity of exchange rates may not be as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368163

Savings rates and output variability in industrial countries

Schinasi, Garry J.; Gagnon, Joseph E. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1989

The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output … savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a striking coincidence of high gross savings rates and high output … is an artifact. The major conclusion is that there is not a robust relationship between average gross savings rates and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368180

Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q*

Mendoza, Enrique G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008

This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets' Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368211

Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications

Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368257

Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend

Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008

The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368262

An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures

Campos, Julia; Ericsson, Neil R.; Hendry, David F. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1987

This paper considers the statistical and econometric effect that fixed n-period phase-averaging has on time series generated by some simple dynamic processes. We focus on the variance and autocorrelation of the data series and of the disturbance term for levels and difference equations involving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368308

Finance and macroeconomic volatility

Denizer, Cevdet; Lyigun, Murat F.; Owen, Ann L. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000

Countries with more developed financial sectors experience less fluctuation in the growth of real per capita output, consumption and investment. However, the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368379

Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship

Kim, Chang-Jin; Piger, Jeremy; Startz, Richard - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2001

This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368389

The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Uribe, Martin - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998

In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368402

The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?

Warnock, M. V. Cacdac; Warnock, Francis E. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000

This paper attempts to add to the understanding of changes in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations by examining disaggregated employment data. Specifically, we use a stochastic variance approach on monthly employment data for the 1946-1996 period to highlight two stylized facts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372563