This paper examines how monetary policy affects the riskiness of the financial sector’s aggregate balance sheet, a mechanism referred to as the risk channel of monetary policy. I study the risk channel in a DSGE model with nominal frictions and a banking sector that can issue both outside...

A key practical challenge for monetary policy is to gauge the extent to which the private sector perceives the central bank’s nominal anchor as transparent and credible. In light of that challenge, this commentary discusses some evidence on the evolution of longer-term inflation expectations...

In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial-market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from...

In the conventional view of inflation, the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) captures most of the persistence in inflation. The sources of persistence are twofold. First, the "driving process" for inflation is quite persistent, and the NKPC implies that inflation must "inherit" this...

This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom by estimating two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and assessing the role of nominal and real rigidities within them. We first obtain an empirical representation of the monetary...

We evaluate the implications of spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injection policies in response to adverse shocks to the economy, using a variant of the financial accelerator model. Our model comprises the two credit-constrained sectors that raise external finance under credit market...

This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area- Wide Model—a microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB—to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent...

We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation (i.e., a falling price level) using yields on nominal and real U.S. Treasury bonds. The deflation probability forecasts identify two “deflation scares” during the past decade: a mild one following the 2001 recession and a...

Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between U.S. monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results...

We develop a novel technique to estimate inflation expectations and inflation risk premia when only a limited number of inflation-indexed bonds are available. The method involves pricing coupon-bearing inflation-indexed bonds directly in terms of an affine term structure model, and avoids the...