In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimized interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area that differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioral elements, and adherence to microfoundations. Our findings are...

As a policymaker, the central bank both observes and shapes the economy. The central bank scrutinizes market activity to assess the state of the economy, and its policy strongly shapes market outcomes. When transparency allows the central bank to shape the economy more effectively, it may also...

This paper argues that a central bank’s optimal policy in response to a cost-push shock depends upon its disclosure regime. More precisely, a credible central bank may find it optimal to implement an accommodative monetary policy in response to a positive cost-push shock whenever the...

We estimate the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last fifty years using an ARMA model of inflation with time-varying autoregressive parameter, motivated by the familiar New Keynesian framework. The estimated path of inflation persistence is consistent with a general...

We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely, to be forward looking and preemptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following...