Should inflation targeting involve some leaning against the wind? Sweden provides a case study, since the Riksbank has been leaning against the wind since 2010, stating concerns about risks associated with the household debt-to-income ratio. The cost of this policy in terms of low inflation and...

In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimized interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area that differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioral elements, and adherence to microfoundations. Our findings are...

We outline a method to provide advice on optimal monetary policy while taking policymakers’ judgment into account. The method constructs optimal policy projections (OPPs) by extracting the judgment terms that allow a model, such as the Federal Reserve Board staff economic model, FRB/US, to...

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank’s main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy...

We estimate the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last fifty years using an ARMA model of inflation with time-varying autoregressive parameter, motivated by the familiar New Keynesian framework. The estimated path of inflation persistence is consistent with a general...

We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely, to be forward looking and preemptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following...